Sri Lanka’s economy reached a significant milestone, reaching pre-crisis levels. But the recovery remains incomplete and uneven, with household incomes and labor market outcomes still lagging the broader economic rebound, says the World Bank Group in its twice-yearly economic outlook.
Released today, the latest Sri Lanka Development Update, From Recovery to Transformation, projects Sri Lanka’s GDP to grow by 4.4% this year, exceeding earlier projections, driven by strong industry performance and steady growth in services.
Growth is projected to slow to 4.2% in 2027 as the post-crisis rebound fades and productivity remains weak. Heightened downside risks, including prolonged volatility in global energy markets and the potential impact of El Niño, could affect productivity and food security.
“Sri Lanka’s reclassification as an upper-middle-income country, especially in a challenging global environment, is a testament to the hard work of its people and the government’s commitment to recovery. But reaching this milestone marks a beginning, not the end — the country needs to seize this momentum to transform its economy and create jobs,” said Gevorg Sargsyan, World Bank Group Country Manager for Sri Lanka. “Sri Lanka can capitalize on sectors with immense potential such as agrifood, investing in the policies, infrastructure, and enabling environment that allow farmers, businesses, and investors to drive the next phase of growth.”
Sri Lanka’s economy has expanded for twelve consecutive quarters, with real GDP increasing 4.7% in the first half of 2026 and returning to 2018 levels. Fiscal performance has also been strong, with the primary budget surplus rising sharply. However, inflation has picked up in recent months, driven by higher energy and food prices, and poverty remains well above pre-crisis levels at 16.9%.
Moving from recovery to transformation will require shifting the engine of growth away from government spending toward increased private investment, exports, and productivity growth, supported by better infrastructure, a stable environment for investment, and greater private sector involvement in key areas of the economy.
The report includes a special focus on agribusiness as a key driver of future growth, jobs, and poverty reduction. While primary agriculture accounts for about 8% of GDP, the broader agrifood system — spanning food processing, logistics, trade, and food services — contributes an estimated one-sixth of GDP and over 40% of employment.
Agribusiness also accounts for nearly 30% of goods exports, making it a vital source of foreign exchange and rural livelihoods. Sri Lanka also competes successfully in global markets in tea, coconut, cinnamon, seafood, and rubber.
Despite this strong foundation, analysis in the report shows that targeted reforms to trade policy, public spending, infrastructure, and access to finance could unlock a new wave of private investment and expand opportunities across Sri Lanka’s agricultural value chains, particularly for smallholders and rural communities.
The report recommends policy measures to establish a more predictable, export-oriented policy environment and to repurpose public spending from inefficient subsidies toward productivity-enhancing investments in agricultural research and climate-smart technologies.
These can be complemented by improvements to quality infrastructure, digital traceability, and cold-chain logistics, as well as reforms to land tenure and access to finance to unlock long-term private investment, especially for smallholders and agribusinesses.
The Sri Lanka Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Economic Update, a twice-yearly World Bank Group report examining economic developments and policy challenges across the South Asia region.
The October 2026 edition titled Adopting AI for Growth says growth in South Asia is expected to increase to 6.9% this year, with strong domestic demand keeping the region resilient to global shocks.
The report explores how AI adoption can help build new sources of growth for the region by boosting labor productivity, expanding export opportunities, and improving public service delivery.